A May to remember; Will June be another record-breaking month?


It's hard to believe that we still have 3 weeks left of spring before summer officially starts. Based on the past month, you would think that summer is here to stay now.

Not only was it an exceptionally warm month, but every single day was above average. The average temperature for the month was 71.7 degrees(+9.2 degrees above average), which is more in line for the month of June. Precipitation was 0.38" above average, with a monthly total of 4.55".

This turned out to be the hottest May on record(dating back to the late 1800's), beating the previous record set back in 1991 where there was an average temperature of 70.82 degrees.

We had two occasions where our high temperature for the day was at or above 90 degrees, which is the first time we've had 90 degree days in May since 2014.

But let's not forget the two previous months, where we were actually well below average in March & April.

This February was also one of the top 10 warmest February's on record but then we ended up running cooler than average for the next two months.

Still though, with how hot May was, there is reason to believe that there is a very good chance that June will be above average too.

Well, looking at the previous top 10 warmest May's on record, half of those May's ended up going into a below average June. So based on that historical data, there's a 50/50 shot of this June being above or below average.

This just goes to show that basing one month's data on the next is inefficient and that we need to look at other meteorological information to make a more accurate forecast. Unfortunately, even with today's technology & advancements in science, there is a lot of uncertainty in weather models--even just days out from an event.

The good news, though, weather models do have a fairly good grasp on temperatures several days out. Looking at the first week of June, it looks to feature a break from the heat & humidity, but it'll still be warm out.

I mean, it is June, you know? Anyways, the first week of June looks near average, with no scorching heat in the forecast.

That is until we look at some of the long-range models. There are some strong signals that indicate a shift in the pattern that will bring back some unseasonably warm weather to the middle of the country as we head into the second week of the month.

Depending on where this ridge or "bump" in the Jet Stream occurs; this will then dictate if we'll see some warmer than average days in the extended forecast. If this ridge continues to shift east, then we will likely experience some warmer days. This will likely cause our temperatures to climb into the upper 80's and even back into the low 90's.

There are also some signals of a potential tropical disturbance impacting the SE U.S. & Gulf Coast near the 10-14 day outlook. If that holds up, then we could see some shifts in the pattern that could affect our weather locally.

For the rest of the month, well, the forecast only becomes harder. However, there is good reason to believe that based on the pattern shifts we could see over the next few weeks, that this month will end up being above average for the bulk of the country.

The Climate Prediction Center(CPC) predicts that the vast majority of the country will feature higher chances for above average temperatures--especially the Southern Plains. The east coast, however, isn't as clear.

There are some indications that we will see above average temperatures for the month but in the end it isn't as clear as it is in the west.

That's because of the pattern shift expected to occur in the coming weeks will then dictate if we'll be seeing another stretch of unseasonably warm days ahead.

In the end, I think that there is a good chance we'll be a few degrees above average by the end of the month but most of the scorching heat will be off to our west.

Precipitation for the month is also tricky, but there are strong signals that the Southern Plains will be dealing with a dry and hot June.

There's a good chance of above average precipitation for the southeast U.S., perhaps because of the influence of tropical disturbances & overall pattern shift; but there is no clear message in the Ohio Valley.

Currently, there's equal chances for above, below and near average precipitation for this month.

In the end, based on historical data & what weather models are predicting, I do believe this month will run slightly above average with respect to the average temperature and will be near average for precipitation this month.

As always, these outlooks are based on the big picture for the month as a whole, not for individual days.